"Positioning Window" / Trend CTA, and Nasdaq VXN observations
I’ll be in NYC next week (12-14th) for a CIO dinner. If you’re in town and focused on similar themes, open to comparing notes.
2 Quick observations:
1 - As part of my framework, I am closely watching for regime shifts in the “Positioning Window” (are we in an environment where utilizing positioning is working vs not working). Trend has had an exceptional past 12mo as noted in slide below (the OPI is negatively correlated based on my White Paper findings). I see the possible beginnings of a shift.
Right now, the OPI (Offsides Positioning Index) is in all the right things (long Nasdaq, EEM and Long Bond, Short USD, Long Metals, short Energy and the Grains – full OPI constituents are available in the weekly deck). I am agnostic and Positioning is my North Star, but it is/has been very “Risk-On”.
Optimal Risk-ON: Nasdaq & EEM, Long-Bond, DM FX (eur, chf, jpy), Gold & Silver, Cocoa
Optimal Risk-OFF: 5s, USD, AUD, Copper, Energy, Grains, Cotton, Live Cattle
2 - Nasdaq vs Nasdaq Vol:
Positioning in Nasdaq is still on the floor, but last time QQQ VXN correlation was this high, Nasdaq had some trouble. Thx to @vixedsignals https://thefreedominion.substack.com/ for pointing this out
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Thanks for attempting to tag me, ya dinosaur. :)