Positioning and Set-up matter, the rest is just "entertainment"

What matters more:

1 - that the entire street THINKs that copper is the next monster trade because of AI?, or
2 - the fact that the street is nearly at its most long and most “full” it’s ever been in copper on a historical basis and that it acts like a dog even when the USD is lower on the day?

Positioning and Set-up matter, the rest is just "entertainment.” I’m oversimplifying, but this is the genesis of my new system.

When “smart” traders and PM’s discuss their ideas and begin with the words “well, the fed … jpow … inflation … recession”, is what they’re saying really tradeable or is it just “entertainment?” Anyone who lives and dies by their P&L and trades true prop understands this.

Maybe this so-called experiment of mine won’t work, but I have always been a meticulous note taker and I case-study every trade I do, small or large. I think it’s helped make me even more successful and hopefully will keep my consistency going. Each week, I have prepared a deck to myself outlining positioning across various markets (Equities, Bonds, FX, and Commodities) along with my book and some qualitative thoughts on what I am SEEING (no views, just observations).

I think I will use this substack as a place to keep a “diary” to myself along the way. I assume I will be the only one reading it, and that’s fine. Who knows what can come of it.

Here’s one from early July that highlighted a possible short setup in the Metals and long Russell (not a tout, I’ve had plenty of dogs along the way as well, and I will highlight each trade as we go, win or lose). I plan on publishing a new one each Friday:

if you made it this far, you are my hero