“We’ve got to get rid of the $19 trillion in debt” … “How long would that take?” … “I think I could do it fairly quickly.” … “What’s fairly quickly?” … “Well, I would say over a period of eight years.” - 2016
Equities / Rates / FX / Commodities discussion/charts available upon request
Asset-Class Observations:
Equities: drifting towards upper quartile (consensus OW) largely driven by week over week delta in Nasdaq
Dispersion continues with S&Ps consensus OW, Russell UW (charts below)
Rates: Front-end of the curve remains consensus OW
Not surprisingly, 10s remain consensus UW, but Long Bond still appears OW on a short-term lookback period
FX: USD positioning remains elevated on a longer lookback, but is nearing closer to Neutral for tactical trading (positioning signal set up well and was contrarian to the “DXY breakout” trade in late June)
EUR, CAD, and NZD remain consensus UW, but are approaching tactical Neutral signals
GBP is the outlier consensus OW on both short and long-term lookbacks (charts below)
Metals: positioning on an intermediate-term lookback has joined the short-term tactical in consensus OW territory as the “debasement” narrative is back
Copper has consistently been the outlier consensus OW but Gold isn’t far behind (charts below)
Silver and Palladium continue to represent the best risk/reward longs from a positioning perspective
Energy: overall Energy positioning drifted tiny higher week over week as Brent positioning continues lower for a 3rd week
Grains: reach out 400619470@bloomberg.net
Softs: Sugar positioning exploded to new highs as the weather story becomes more well-known. Thursday saw a reversal lower, but Friday more or less closed nowhere
Cocoa positioning remains mixed, but the chart is interesting (charts below)
Cotton: reach out 400619470@bloomberg.net
Livestock: News combined with a lower open and closing green on Friday presented an interesting trade in Live Cattle: reach out 400619470@bloomberg.net
Lean Hogs remains on radar
Disclaimer: This publication is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice and blah blah blah … Bandazian, 400619470@bloomberg.net
Cocoa chart very interesting
Great stuff mate