MACRO POSITIONING - 4/12 (FX, Energy, S&P, Gold observations)

“Process over Prediction”

Apr 12, 2025

PSA: you won’t find the word “t*riff” in this deck. You’re welcome.

“Windows”: I’ve spoken about the concept of the “hour-glass edge” in a recent pod w/ AlphaMind, but I want to touch on my belief of the concept of “windows.” I’m a big believer that every strategy has its streak of success. Regardless what it is, staying true to your process and system will have windows of success, failure, and treading water - no “style-drift”. It happens in every strategy (Trend, Breakouts, Equity Long/Short, Event, Value, the list goes on and on). A great blackjack player counting cards knows when to press and when to back off.

LINKS: Who Am I?, What is Offsides Video, Offsides Positioning Index Primer, Previous Deck, "0's and 1's" Primer, Discord Invite

WHERE IS THE STREET MOST OFFSIDES TODAY?:

Offsides Short (or least long): Gold (huh?), Platinum, WTI, S&P’s/Dow, 5’s/10’s, Coffee, Wheat, Soybean Meal, OJ
- Offsides Short “Exits”: n/a
Offsides Long (or least short): Long Bond (unwind?), JPY, BRL
- Offsides Long “Exits”: Live Cattle, Lumber

HIGHLIGHTED MARKETS:

Last week’s highlighted markets performed well overall (shameless victory-lap):

I fully acknowledge that “consensus” can run you over … having said that: This week’s highlighted markets:

USD: Consensus is for continued outflows of USD and US assets (reversal of TINA). I’ve heard/read from numerous places now calling the U.S. an “emerging market” … please … there’s obviously outbound flows at the moment, but let’s focus on USD (expressed thru EUR, CHF, and/or JPY):
ENERGY: short energy is also consensus right now into a slowdown/recession. It’s a market that hasn’t backfired short-term for Trump (yet), and Trend CTA’s are now short across the board (excl NatGas) … I made the same observation in the mid $60’s, and WTI ran into the low $70’s. I also acknowledge I continued to make this offsides observation a couple weeks ago just before the dump, not hiding from that (as promised) … but that’s what stops are for, without them you’re dead. Lastly, I’ll point out that it makes NO sense for energy to trade higher into a slowdown/recession … maybe a reason it can work on the long side