MACRO POSITIONING - 3/30 (Softs and WTI observations)
“resulting”
“RESULTING”: Annie Duke’s concept of “resulting” is a cognitive bias where people judge the quality of a decision based solely on the outcome rather than the decision-making process itself (very dangerous in trading …)
New podcast coming this week w/ the gents @ AlphaMind, was fun
LINKS: Who Am I?, What is Offsides Video, Offsides Positioning Index Primer, Previous Deck, "0's and 1's" Primer, Discord Invite
WHERE IS THE STREET MOST OFFSIDES TODAY?:
Offsides Short (or least long): Softs (Cotton, Cocoa), WTI, Wheat, Soybean Meal, Dow
Offsides Short “Exits”: 5’s
Offsides Long (or least short): Live Cattle, Long Bond, JPY, BRL, EEM, Bitcoin
Offsides Long “Exits”: Silver
HIGHLIGHTED MARKETS:
WTI: continues to provide an asymmetric setup w/ positioning near lows: Previous deck re WTI
SOFTS:
Cotton and Cocoa are currently offsides short
Coffee oscillator is misleading
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
S&P500 & Nasdaq: heaviest net selling in past 2 yrs (and this does not include wed thru fri)
Emerging Markets back to max offsides long oscillator (and absolute)
Long Bond: back into offsides long territory
JPY: continues to be offsides long
Heating Oil: first net buying in 5 weeks
Corn: 4 straight weeks of heavy net selling
Soybean Oil: 5 straight weeks of heavy net selling
Soybean Meal: back into offsides short territory (near min absolute as well)
Coffee: first net buying (small) in 8 weeks, offsides short
Live Cattle: back into offsides long territory (and near absolute highs)
CHARTS OF THE WEEK:
0’s AND 1’s (Market Positioning, OPI Trades, Technicals, CTA Holdings, Performance):
OPI:
“it’s not the president’s job to smooth returns and volatility for the top 5% net worth of the country. it’s to make hard decisions that sometimes inflict short-term pain, but ultimately ensure prosperity and safety for the 100%’s future generations”
rick - 400619470@bloomberg.net
great podcast...especially the flow talk